The polls have been closed for several hours and Debi Rose has declared victory in the North Shore City Council primary. According to the Associated Press, with all 125 precincts reporting, the tally is 4,656, or 55 percent, for Ms.Rose, 3,344, or 39 percent, for Mitchell, and roughly 6% for Rajiv Gowda. So what happened?

Since vPercent isn't that accurate when it comes to primaries when there are three candidates, I've attempted to tinker with it to see how close it can get to the real election night totals. As stated in the previous post, the numbers mentioned there didn't consider Rajiv Gowda. According to vPercent, Gowda is not in a position to take more than 12% of the vote - most likely, it will be around 10%.

There is a Democratic primary election on September 15th on Staten Island for the North Shore City Council seat. Incumbent Councilman Ken Mitchell will be facing off Debi Rose for the votes of North Shore constituents. Once again, I ran the numbers through vPercent and here are the expected totals for election night.

Make sure you go out and vote tomorrow - it's that simple. Make an educated decision and just do it. Every single vote counts.

There will be no more changes to the vPercent. After looking at the margin of error, I've decided to leave it as is. I'm comfortable with the range being from 62% to 68%/32% to 38%.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS ONLY TAKES INTO ACCOUNT TWO CANDIDATES.

This doesn't address Cochrane or Morano. So you can tell who these candidates directed votes from.

Updated the numbers on the left hand side. At this rate, McMahon has already topped out his potential and can not get any higher than 65% on election day (within the margin of error, of course). I will update the numbers one more time if necessary before election day.