Congressman Michael McMahon's CoS recently told the Staten Island Advance that he will be voting against the healthcare bill.

At first glance, this might seem like a good idea. Staten Island/Bay Ridge is a congressional district that leans conservative and many constituents are indeed against the bill. By voting against this bill, Rep. McMahon is definitely making it seem as if he is listening to his constituents' concerns, which I am sure he is.

But when looking at this even closer, you begin to realize that Rep. McMahon is in a lose-lose situation. No matter who the Republican in the race is, they will give him a run for his money. The issue that comes into play is - what if another candidate runs on the Democratic line or WFP?

If Rep. McMahon is challenged to a primary by a candidate who is for healthcare reform and hits him constantly about it, McMahon will have to spend a lot of his money defending himself, while his Republican opponent just sits on the sidelines, raising more and more money. Even if McMahon wins the primary, his Republican opponent won't even have to work hard to bring up his votes because the primary opponent will have made everyone aware of it.

Rep. McMahon is going to face an extremely tough election next year if he faces a strong Republican but it will be even tougher if a SLIGHTLY progressive Democrats decides to challenge him in a primary.